AWP Forecasts (FC) are a Statewide modelling project. They help you understand the effectiveness of approved Annual Works Plans (AWP) before they are implemented at a state level. The project is modelled by copying the setup of the current Statewide Snapshot Project and adding in supplementary wild fire history data representing an AWP. The project is modelled for a date in the future and assumes all treatments on the AWP have been completed.
Application of AWP Forecast project results
AWP Forecast projects show the risk reduction that would occur at a state level if all works in the AWPs were completed. This data can help you determine whether the Annual Works Plan treatments reduce risk sufficiently or if changes to planned works are required.
Scenarios
There are two types of modelling scenarios in an AWP Forecast modelling project:
Current Risk (code = CR) (reference run). The Current Risk scenario assesses the statewide fire risk starting January 1st for the following year with no proposed treatments. In AWP projects, the Current Risk scenario is from the current Authorised Snapshot project (when you create your AWP Forecast project). It is used only as a reference run to highlight changes in risk from other project types. The RMP uses the input and configurations from the reference run to create the Future Modelled scenario.
If someone Authorises a new Snapshot project, it will not change your AWP Forecast project reference run.
Future Modelled (code = FM). The Future Modelled scenario assesses the statewide fire risk of a future date you choose using the date picker in the project setup. You cannot change the date later.
Runs
AWP Forecast projects have both Fire Behaviour runs and Impact Analysis runs.
Inputs and configurations
AWP Forecast projects have the following required inputs and configurations that you need to add during setup:
Scenario date
Modified Fire History (replaces Fire History).
Once you complete setup, the RMP automatically creates your first Future Modelled (FM) scenario using inputs and configurations from the Snapshot Current Risk (CR) scenario reference run. You can override all inputs and configurations with the exception of 'Scenario date', this is locked during setup stage.
You can find the reference run on the top navigation bar.
Supplementary Wildfire History (SuppWFH)
You can choose to include treatments or not. To include treatments, you must add the Supplementary Wildfire History (SuppWFH) input to the run’s settings. You will see which runs include treatments on the project’s scenario table.
If you clone a run with treatments, you must remove the SuppWFH file if you want a run without treatments.
Weather Regions
Statewide projects use Weather Regions. These polygons divide the state into sections to represent weather across an area for risk modelling. They may not align with existing NSW weather boundaries. Each Weather Region has its own Fire Danger Rating (FDR) values and weather streams.
Outputs
Max Fuel Loads projects have similar outputs as other modelling projects. For a complete list, see Modelling outputs.
Change in Risk
Each new run automatically generates a Change In Risk product, comparing it with the reference run.
You can manually generate on-demand Change In Risk products between runs other than the reference run via the Compare tab. For more information, see Generate Change in Risk.
Running and managing your project
Different project types have shared tasks and features. For information on how to run and manage your project, see Common tasks and features.